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Three Questions About Iowa
  + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The incumbent president is likely to win the Democratic nomination easily, while a former president seems to be running away with the Republican nomination. By tonight, however, voting will have begun, at least on the Republican side, thanks to the Iowa caucuses. Today’s newsletter offers a preview, in the form of three questions. The big question is whether Donald Trump wins the landslide victory that polls have forecast. Recent polls have shown Trump receiving around 50 percent of the Republican vote in Iowa, with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis both at 20 percent or below.
Persons: Don’t, Donald Trump, Richard Nixon, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy Organizations: Democratic, Republican Locations: Iowa
The main reason is that almost every form of care in the U.S. costs more: doctor’s visits, hospital stays, drug prescriptions, surgeries and more. The American health care system maximizes the profits of health care companies at the expense of families’ budgets. Dying brokeYou can find a poignant example in a series that The Times and KFF Health News (a nonprofit) have been publishing in recent weeks. It’s called Dying Broke, and it examines the long-term care industry. “That is far higher than the money made in most other health sectors.”
Persons: — Gerard Anderson, Uwe Reinhardt, Peter Hussey, Varduhi, , It’s, ” Jordan Rau Organizations: KFF Health Locations: U.S
What the Polls Say About Gaza
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
A major reason appears to be the civilian death toll in Gaza, which is mostly women and children. Consider these two facts: One, most Americans say that Israel’s military response has been both reasonable and understandable. In the Ipsos poll, 68 percent of people agreed that “Israel should call a cease-fire and try to negotiate.”This combination of views doesn’t quite mesh. Still, you can understand why many Americans would hold this mix of views: They both support Israel’s effort to topple Hamas and do not want Palestinians to keep dying. Yes, only one of the two findings is convenient to each side in the debate, but both findings are real.
Persons: Ipsos, isn’t, Israel, don’t Organizations: Reuters, Israel, Hamas Locations: Gaza, Israel, Gazans
A Strategic Dilemma
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Israel and Hamas have extended their truce for two days — through tomorrow — which will bring the pause in fighting to six days. For Israel’s leaders in particular, the pause has created a strategic dilemma. Within Israel, families of the hostages have called on their country’s leaders to prioritize the release of all hostages. And Hamas can hope that the pause leads the U.S. to push Israel to moderate its war aims. “To end the war now would leave Hamas still in charge of most of Gaza,” my colleague Patrick Kingsley has written.
Persons: Biden, Patrick Kingsley Organizations: Hamas Locations: Israel, Gaza, U.S
A Crossword Anniversary
  + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Will Shortz celebrated his 30th anniversary as The Times’s Crossword editor this week. He is one of only four Crossword editors since 1942, when the paper began publishing puzzles as a way to offer relief to readers overwhelmed by war news. To mark Will’s anniversary, I interviewed him by email for today’s newsletter. I’m grateful to crossword devotees who suggested some of today’s questions. But what have been the biggest changes to the puzzle during the past 30 years?
Persons: Will Shortz, ” Lester Markel, Arthur Hays Sulzberger, David Leonhardt, I’ve Locations: Pearl
Football’s Young Victims
  + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
It involves a Boston University study of athletes who played contact sports — like football — as children and died before turning 30, many by suicide. The Times has just published an interactive article about the study, including childhood videos of the athletes and filmed interviews with their parents. “The voices and demons in my head just started to take over everything I wanted to do,” Bramwell tells the camera as he sits in the driver’s seat of his car. He was one of the 152 athletes whose brains the Boston University researchers studied. Of the 63, 48 had played football, while others had wrestled or played hockey or soccer.
Persons: Wyatt Bramwell, ” Bramwell, Bramwell Organizations: Boston University, Times
A Surprising Shift in Economics
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
A then-obscure think tank named the Roosevelt Institute released a report in 2015 that called for a new approach to economic policy. It was unabashedly progressive, befitting the history of the institute, which was created by trusts honoring Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt. National news outlets covered the report while also noting how much of a break it represented with decades of economic policy by both the Democratic and Republican Parties. American workers have become more interested in unionizing, and labor unions in both the auto industry and Hollywood have recently won big victories. “It’s very surprising this all happened,” Felicia Wong, the longtime president of the Roosevelt Institute, told me.
Persons: Franklin, Eleanor Roosevelt, Biden, ” Felicia Wong, Organizations: Roosevelt Institute, Democratic, Republican, Biden, Trump, Hollywood
The Cost of Streaming
  + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Streaming technology has allowed people to spend much more time watching entertainment than they did in the past. Normally, a big increase in the use of a product also increases the profits of the companies that make that product. Disney’s stock price has fallen more than half from its 2021 peak, and the company fired its C.E.O. Shares of Paramount Pictures’ parent company are worth less than they were 25 years ago. Warren Buffett recently described streaming as a particularly difficult environment in which to make money.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Jonathan Mahler — Organizations: Paramount Pictures, Times Magazine, Warner Brothers, Hollywood Locations: Hollywood
Many Democrats have come to believe that abortion access is the solution to their political problems. This week’s election results — with Ohio guaranteeing abortion access in a landslide and Democrats winning in both Virginia and Kentucky — support this notion. Widespread abortion access is clearly popular, even in many red states. What’s less clear is how much abortion politics affect general elections between a Democrat and a Republican. Ohio, the center of the abortion fight in this year’s election, offers a useful case study.
Persons: Roe, Wade Organizations: Democrat, Republican, Democratic Party Locations: Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky
Yesterday’s elections went well for the Democratic Party. Andy Beshear won re-election in normally red Kentucky, 53 percent to 48 percent, by emphasizing his support for abortion rights and the economic benefits of Biden administration policies. In increasingly red Ohio, voters overwhelmingly passed a constitutional amendment that keeps abortion legal until roughly 23 weeks of pregnancy. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, all seven states to have voted on abortion rights have chosen to protect or expand them. Miles Coleman, an election analyst at the University of Virginia, said of abortion.
Persons: Andy Beshear, Biden, Roe, Wade, Glenn Youngkin’s, , ” J, Miles Coleman, “ It’s, Organizations: Democratic Party, Gov, State Senate, Youngkin, University of Virginia Locations: Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia
Today is Election Day, and we are using this newsletter to give you a guide. One theme is that Democrats are hoping to continue their strong recent electoral performance despite President Biden’s low approval rating. They are older, more affluent and more highly educated than people who vote only in presidential elections. But these victories do not necessarily foreshadow presidential elections. The other side of the class inversion is that Democrats are increasingly struggling with lower-income and nonwhite voters, many of whom vote only in presidential elections.
Persons: Biden’s Organizations: Democratic Party
The Autoworkers’ Victories
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
In the real world, similar workers often earn different wages. Their wages fall somewhere in Lester’s range of indeterminacy. Most workers don’t know exactly how valuable their contributions are and therefore what their true market wage should be. Company executives typically don’t know either, but the executives do have more information — about how much money different workers make and how productive each is. For most workers, by contrast, quitting over a pay dispute can create financial hardship.
Persons: Richard Lester, Lester Organizations: United Auto Workers, Detroit’s, Company, Employers Locations: Princeton
The network is made up of tunnels, where most Hamas fighters are likely living alongside stockpiles of weapons, food, water and, now, more than 200 Israeli hostages. The Israeli military first launched an intense air attack targeting these tunnels and has now sent in ground troops to destroy them. Eliminating the tunnels would go long way toward breaking Hamas’s control over Gaza. But after Israel withdrew its forces and settlers from Gaza nearly two decades ago, Hamas vastly expanded the underground network. Hamas has a long history of terrorist violence — both the U.S. and the European Union consider it a terrorist group — and the tunnels allow its members to hide from Israeli air attacks.
Persons: Israel Organizations: Hamas, U.S, European Union Locations: Gaza, Israel
Gaetz, a far-right House Republican who viewed Speaker Kevin McCarthy as too willing to compromise with Democrats, started a process three weeks ago to unseat him. Not only did that effort work, but House Republicans emerged from their recent chaos yesterday to elect Mike Johnson as the new speaker. “Because now we have both a man and a plan.”Johnson had little national profile until he emerged as the leading candidate for speaker on Tuesday night. Unlike the three failed speaker candidates who came before him, Johnson has few enemies among House Republicans. His hallmark in Congress, our colleague Annie Karni wrote in a profile of Johnson, “has been combining his hard-line views with a gentle personal style.”
Persons: Matt Gaetz’s, Kevin McCarthy, Mike Johnson, Johnson, McCarthy, , ” Gaetz, ” Johnson, Susan Collins, Annie Karni Organizations: Republican, Democrats, Republicans, 118th, Wall Street, Maine Republican, House Republicans Locations: Maine
Longer Commutes, Shorter Lives
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The scheduled flight time between Los Angeles and New York, for example, has become about 30 minutes longer. Nearly every other part of the trip also lasts longer than it would have a few decades ago, thanks to traffic on the roads and airport security. All told, a cross-country trip could take a few more hours today than it would have in the 1970s. In 1969, Metroliner trains made two-and-a-half-hour, nonstop trips between Washington and New York. Today, there are no nonstop trains on that route, and the fastest trip, on Acela trains, takes about 20 minutes longer than the Metroliner once did.
Persons: Shorter Organizations: Aviation, Auto Locations: U.S, Los Angeles and New York, Washington and New York
The stagnation of investment does not stem only from the size of government. But the United States has effectively starved programs focused on the future at the expense of those focused on the present. For decades, incomes and wealth have grown more slowly than the economy for every group other than the very rich. Net worth for the typical family shrank during the first two decades of the 21st century, after adjusting for inflation. The trends in many noneconomic measures of well-being are even worse: In 1980, life expectancy in the United States was typical for an industrialized country.
Persons: Eugene Steuerle, , , Biden, Eisenhower Organizations: Republicans, Democrats, Social Security, Urban Institute, Democrat, Republican, Republican Party Locations: United States, Washington, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia, Greece, China
President Biden will visit Israel tomorrow after accepting an invitation from Benjamin Netanyahu. Biden will be following his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, who was in Israel yesterday for the second time in the past week, after already having visited Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. Any country attacked as Israel was on Oct. 7 — with Hamas’s killing of more than 1,400 people and kidnapping of at least 199 — would be likely to respond militarily. “Israel is going after a group of people who have engaged in barbarism that is as consequential as the Holocaust,” Biden said in a “60 Minutes” interview. “Israel has to respond.”
Persons: Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Antony Blinken, ” Biden, Organizations: Israel, Hamas Locations: Israel, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Gaza, “ Israel
Three progressive movements have risen to prominence over the past 15 years and vowed to create a fairer America: Occupy Wall Street, #MeToo and Black Lives Matter. #MeToo led to the firing (and sometimes jailing) of sexual predators, as well as the hiring of more women in prominent jobs. Black Lives Matter led to policing reforms in some cities and the hiring of more Black Americans in prominent jobs. Still, none of the three movements have come close to achieving their ambitions. Instead, taxes on the affluent are near their lowest level in decades, and the number of killings by the police remains largely unchanged.
Persons: MeToo, , ” Fredrik deBoer Organizations: Occupy Locations: America
A Subtle Change for Biden
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
These countries tend to be flawed democracies (like Brazil, India, Israel and Nigeria) or autocracies (like Saudi Arabia and Vietnam). If the U.S. suggests that only democracies are welcome in its alliance, that alliance will shrink. But, he added, Biden “has also been clear that in that larger effort, we need constructive relationships with countries of all different traditions and backgrounds.”The C.I.A. The U.S. strengthened its ties with Vietnam — which remains a one-party state — when Biden visited Hanoi this month. All of this may help explain the approach Biden took at the U.N. yesterday.
Persons: ” Walter Russell Mead, ” Mead, Biden, Peter Baker, Jake Sullivan, ” Sullivan, Biden “, Stalin, Saddam Hussein, Narendra Modi, Justin Trudeau, Canada’s, India’s, Edward Wong, Mark Mazzetti, Organizations: Washington, Hudson Institute, White House, autocracies, Stalin’s, Vietnam, Saudi Locations: Beijing, Brazil, India, Israel, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, U.S, United States, Stalin’s Soviet, Kuwait, Europe, Japan, South Korea, China, British Columbia, Hanoi, Turkey, Hungary, Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia
Tens of thousands of children in the U.S., spanning all 50 states, work full time, often on overnight shifts and in dangerous jobs. For the past year and a half, my colleague Hannah Dreier has been reporting on the explosion of child labor among young migrants who have recently arrived in this country. The story exposes the human costs of this country’s broken immigration system. Over the past 15 years, entering the U.S. without legal permission has become easier, especially for children. A 2008 law, intended to protect children from harm on the Mexican side of the border, has meant that children can usually enter the country without documentation.
Persons: Tyson, , Hannah Dreier, Marcos Cux, Perdue, Hannah, , Dexter Filkins Organizations: Perdue, Tyson Foods, Government, Times Magazine Locations: U.S, Washington, Virginia, Central America
The Autoworkers Go on Strike
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
(Here is the latest Times coverage of the United Auto Workers strike that began this morning.) But history shows that the potential for a strike, and sometimes the reality of one, is necessary for workers to receive healthy raises and ensure good working conditions. The decades after World War II are rightly remembered as a time when the American middle class was expanding rapidly. In the 12 months after World War II ended, almost five million Americans, or roughly 10 percent of the work force, went on strike, including autoworkers, film crews in Hollywood, steel workers, coal miners and meatpackers. During the 1950s — a supposedly conformist decade — more than 1.5 million workers went on strike every year on average.
Organizations: United Auto Workers Locations: American, Hollywood
Many political analysts (including me) assumed that Trump’s presidency would aggravate racial gaps in voting, given Trump’s embrace of white nationalism. White voters have moved toward the Democratic Party, while Asian, Black and Hispanic voters have moved to the right. Voters of color still lean clearly Democratic, and white voters clearly Republican, but the shifts are big enough to matter. White voters have helped Democrats win recent elections in the Midwest and Georgia, while voters of color have helped Republicans keep their hold on Florida and Texas. The most progressive segment of the American public, by contrast, is disproportionately white, the Pew Research Center has documented.
Persons: Trump, Covid, Republicans ’, lockdowns Organizations: Democratic Party, Republican, Midwest and, , Republican Party, Republicans, Equis, Pew Research Center Locations: Midwest, Midwest and Georgia, Florida, Texas, U.S
The Supreme Court decision banning race-based affirmative action has thrust economic diversity to the center of the debate over college admissions. Many supporters of the old affirmative action see economic diversity as a way to continue creating racially diverse college classes, given the large racial gaps that exist in income and wealth. Given this background, my colleagues at The Times Magazine and I decided to shine a light on economic diversity at nearly 300 of the country’s most selective colleges, public and private. This morning, we’re publishing a measure we call the College Access Index. ‘They are there’A decade ago, Washington University in St. Louis was the least economically diverse college in the country.
Persons: Louis, Pell Organizations: Times, Washington University Locations: St
Explaining Bidenomics
  + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
They want the government to spend more money on highways, technological development and other policies that could create good-paying jobs. The experts, in short, believe that they had been too accepting of the more laissez-faire economic agenda often known as neoliberalism. This turnabout is the central explanation for President Biden’s economic agenda, which White House aides call Bidenomics and will be core to his re-election campaign. Foer tells the story partly through Jake Sullivan, who helped design Biden’s domestic agenda during the campaign and then became national security adviser. That’s why several Warren protégés, like Bharat Ramamurti, work in senior White House roles today.
Persons: Bidenomics, , Biden’s, Franklin Foer, Foer, Jake Sullivan, Sullivan, Hillary Clinton, Biden, Donald Trump’s, Democratic wonks, ” Foer, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez, Warren protégés, Bharat Ramamurti Organizations: Democratic, Rhodes, Yale, White Locations: Alexandria
Where Are the Students?
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
“For almost two years, we told families that school can look different and that schoolwork could be accomplished in times outside of the traditional 8-to-3 day,” Elmer Roldan, who runs a dropout prevention group, told The Los Angeles Times. “The most fundamental thing for adults to understand is that avoidance feeds anxiety,” Damour told me. But the problem with giving in to that anxiety is that avoidance is highly reinforcing.” The more often students skip school, the harder it becomes to get back in the habit of going. And the rise in chronic absenteeism is indeed a sign that schools need help. One promising step would be to make teaching a more appealing job, Damour notes, in order to attract more great teachers.
Persons: ” Elmer Roldan, ” Lisa Damour, , ” Damour, Damour Organizations: Los Angeles Times
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